On the first of each month, I share reflections on the market in our private podcast. This enables me to tie together the various threads of our work and connect the dots between what I observe and hear during my travels and interactions with people.
While many of you are podcast buffs, some prefer the magic of the written word. This is an edited transcript of the recording, without my typical writing flair. Here goes:
When I think about communicating ideas, I think of four buckets: politics, policy, economy, and markets. I try to get a sense of whether each of those four categories are giving signals that are bullish or bearish. And of course, when all of them are aligned, that’s when you can develop the most conviction. I think we’re getting there.
Let’s start with politics. For some time now, I’ve actually argued that politics don’t matter. We obsessed about it so much during the Trump presidency where it did matter, that now we’re sort of tired out.
But that’s not the conventional wisdom because geopolitics has become a buzzword and multipolarity as a theme is widely discussed. This is surprising to me because it is so obviously the case for the last twenty years. It’s not something new.
Now in the present, we realize that the debt ceiling was just a distraction. Senate leaders are imploring their colleagues to move quickly to approve a House passed bill ahead of the Monday default deadline. It didn’t really matter to markets.
And as for US-China relations, while strategic rivalry will continue for many years, there are periods where diplomacy brings the two sides closer, and I do think we’ve been in such a period since the G20 meeting last November.
Just to remind you, President Biden said that the US should “compete vigoro...