On the first of each month, I share reflections on the market in our private podcast. This enables me to tie together the various threads of our work and connect the dots between what I observe and hear during my travels and interactions with people. 

While many of you are podcast buffs, some prefer the magic of the written word. This is an edited transcript of the recording, without my typical writing flair. Here goes:  

Let’s start with politics. There have been a series of notable political surprises. First, Iran’s president, Ebrahim Raisi, died in a helicopter crash. In India, Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s party lost its parliamentary stronghold. Meanwhile, in Mexico Claudia Sheinbaum won by a landslide victory. Both outcomes were unexpected. Sheinbaum’s victory was priced in but a near-super majority was not while in India a very large Modi victory was priced in rather than a modest majority. 

Then, in South Africa, the ANC lost its parliamentary majority for the first time since apartheid ended. And of course, French President Emmanuel Macron and German Chancellor Olaf Scholz suffered massive defeats in the European Parliament elections, as far-right parties made considerable gains. In Germany, Scholz’s Social Democrats crashed to their worst-ever result, falling behind both the opposition conservatives and far-right Alternative for Germany. 

Considering the political upsets occurring around the world, I find it quite unsettling how unanimous the consensus is for the US election in November. This quote from Bill Ackman puts it best.