It was surprising that we almost went through the entire dinner and no one mentioned “Brexit.” This was all anyone wanted to discuss on our last visit. So we stirred the debate.

The UK has closed the chapter on nearly half a century of integration with its European neighbors by formally quitting the EU. There is a transition period of at least 11 months as the country negotiates future relations with the EU. During that time, Britain will legally be outside the bloc, but little will change for citizens on either side.

The risk noted by one of the participants was that the UK does not have experienced trade negotiators and talks could consume ministers’ energies and prevent them addressing the UK’s big structural problems. “Yes, but a strong parliamentary majority makes it easier to get things done,” it was countered.

One of the participants just a closed a deal on a nursing care home. He is bullish on UK assets. “Long-term economic prospects remain sound and the country will remain one of the most attractive destinations for capital.”

Another participant joked, “Indeed, Saudi Arabia’s sovereign wealth fund is in talks to buy the English Premier League club Newcastle United.” In all seriousness, he continued, “No one I know has sold their property holdings in London because of Brexit. They have been buying more.” The British pound is historically cheap making UK assets very attractive.

Monetary policy is extremely accommodative, and the next interest rate move by the Bank of England, whenever it occurs, could in fact be higher. With higher public spending already in the cards, it was argued that the pound could rally substantially from current levels. “Accumulate dips below 1.30.” Meanwhile, UK gilts should be short.

UK stocks are currently trading at the lowest levels relative to the global benchmark since the mid-1970s. As long as we are above the 2000, 2007, and 2015 highs the market could continue to rally, but it’s not clear what could reverse the underperformance.


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