The Speaker disagrees with the growing consensus opinion that another reflationary cycle is taking hold.
High yield EM sovereign credit should deliver double digit returns this year.
“It’s a cliffhanger for countries... The crisis comes slowly, slowly, slowly, then all at once.”
“The way to learn is to shed your ego. This means be open to defeat.”
This has been the worst quarter for carry trades since 1999.
EM countries now face a health crisis and a financial crisis which interact in complex ways.
The only true competitor in an infinite game is yourself.
Investors should be on guard for a more volatile and disruptive phase ahead.
Bystanders look for a long time—free of constraints, unobscured by their own judgments, waiting patiently to grasp the essential truth.
A market can, and typically does, cease being a bull market long before the index starts to fall. Time to get ready.