The low level of nominal bond yields provides an important offset to the richness of earnings multiples.
POLITICS
Coronavirus: Impact on the Dollar and US Election
Should we think of America as a classically troubled emerging market?
SALON
Consumer & Growth Stocks Salon
The future has been pulled forward creating a decade’s worth of change in just a few months. We gathered this month to identify opportunities and discuss what comes next.
ECONOMY
Where are the Millennials’ homes?
The virus has pulled millions of people back into the homebuying market to look for a home for their families and remote work needs. With inadequate supply, a new construction boom is unfolding.
MACRO
The Rip-Roaring Twenties
The insight from financial history is that we’ve endured the “displacement” and are only now entering the “boom.” The “mania” phase lies well ahead.
TECH
Future Nostalgia
Even after 50 years, the ICT revolution is far from complete. As we look ahead, a green socially sustainable golden age is technologically possible.
SLACK
Community Wisdom: Long Crazy Rich Asians, Short Arrogance, Long Beauty Contests, and Long Operas
We continue the conversation daily in our members-only Slack group. These are the most helpful insights gained from the community last month.
ECONOMY
The Fed’s Humanitarian Mission
Under the compulsions of a new cultural milieu, it will take years for the Fed to meet their broad-based and inclusive employment goals.
SALON
Rotation or regime change?
Macro themes that dominated the market for the last fifteen months—Covid, WFH, then vaccine/reopening—are fading. What comes next?
HISTORY
When Dreams Come True
Once again, we are pushing the boundaries of mesospheric ego and logic. The billionaire space race is more important than you think.
HISTORY
Annals of Wall Street
Once again, Wall Street seems poised on the verge of a take-off into new, totally unexpected, and totally uncharted directions.
HISTORY
From the Go-Go Years to YOLO
What can the sixties tell us about how we should be thinking now?
HISTORY
The Bear Patrol
A market can, and typically does, cease being a bull market long before the index starts to fall. Time to get ready.
BONDS
Exploring the Most Perplexing Question
A 1.5 percent yield on the 10-year Treasury in a time of rapidly accelerating inflation. Is there anything more perplexing?
SLACK
Community Wisdom: Sell cleverness and buy bewilderment
We continue the conversation daily in our members-only Slack group. Here’s a summary of the most helpful insights gained from the community last month.
MOOD
The cult of Elon
Elon Musk embodies the cult of personality that investors are attracted to in the final stages of the bull market.
MOOD
Signs from the cosmos
The cosmic picture is one of unparalleled levels of euphoria in 2022. We remain bullish.
SALON
Prospering in Post-pandemic Life
POLICY
Lessons from 1994
Fed chief Jerome Powell is emulating Alan Greenspan’s activist monetary policy approach from 1994. This holds lessons for all of us.
SLACK
Community Wisdom: Long Opposites, Short Harvests, Long Beatings, Short Aging, and Short Reason
We continue the conversation daily in our members-only Slack group. Here’s a summary of the most helpful insights gained from the community last month.
HISTORY
Revisiting the Nifty Fifty
“The Nifty Fifty were taken out and shot one by one.”
MACRO
Bull or no bull
What if the greatest trick the market ever pulled was convincing investors that we’re still in a bear market?
SLACK
Community Wisdom: Short Naval, Long Fear, Long Patience, Short Conflict
We continue the conversation daily in our members-only Slack group. Here’s a summary of the most helpful insights gained from the community last month.
POLICY
Why fight the Fed?
A common assertion is that markets won’t bottom out until we see clear signs of a dovish central bank pivot. We disagree with this.
CHINA
Going all-in on China
What are genuine signs of reopening and what is noise? Don’t focus on the economy, the covid outbreak, or the protests; listen to the market.
MACRO
Eyes wide shut
With eyes wide shut, most people don’t expect to see what they’re not looking for. We encourage you to open your eyes.
SLACK
Community Wisdom: Short Buffett, Short Reason, Long Casinos, and Long Obscurity
We continue the conversation daily in our members-only Slack group. These are the most helpful insights gained from the community last month.
MACRO
The Year of Contrarian Thinking
What happened to the assured recession which most models, surveys, and leading indicators have been pointing to?
EVENT
Greenwich Dinner Notes: Long Skynet, Short Liars, and Short Anomalies
Bringing together the most interesting people in the most interesting locations for the most interesting ideas.
MACRO
China EVs: the undoing of oil
We believe oil is starting to price in a negative demand shock from global EV adoption. The structural shift in energy markets has begun.
SCRIBE
Water cooler insights
Banks are under stress and pockets of the commercial real estate market are showing cracks as well. What’s next?
EVENT
Notes from New York
I didn’t think it was possible, but I returned from my New York trip even more bullish.
TECH
Where are we in the AI hype cycle?
AI is shifting from productivity sapping distraction to a secular productivity tailwind. What are the macro and investment implications?
