MACRO stocks bonds
“You almost feel numb.”
MACRO TECH stocks
The low level of nominal bond yields provides an important offset to the richness of earnings multiples.
POLITICS Dollar stocks
Should we think of America as a classically troubled emerging market?
SALON STOCKS
The future has been pulled forward creating a decade’s worth of change in just a few months. We gathered this month to identify opportunities and discuss what comes next.
ECONOMY HOUSING stocks
The virus has pulled millions of people back into the homebuying market to look for a home for their families and remote work needs. With inadequate supply, a new construction boom is unfolding.
MACRO STOCKS FED coronavirus
The insight from financial history is that we’ve endured the “displacement” and are only now entering the “boom.” The “mania” phase lies well ahead.
TECH stocks economy climate
Even after 50 years, the ICT revolution is far from complete. As we look ahead, a green socially sustainable golden age is technologically possible.
SLACK bitcoin stocks
We continue the conversation daily in our members-only Slack group. These are the most helpful insights gained from the community last month.
ECONOMY FED inflation stocks
Under the compulsions of a new cultural milieu, it will take years for the Fed to meet their broad-based and inclusive employment goals.
SALON TECH SEMIS stocks crypto
Macro themes that dominated the market for the last fifteen months—Covid, WFH, then vaccine/reopening—are fading. What comes next?
HISTORY stocks SPACE MOOD
Once again, we are pushing the boundaries of mesospheric ego and logic. The billionaire space race is more important than you think.
HISTORY STOCKS CRYPTO
Once again, Wall Street seems poised on the verge of a take-off into new, totally unexpected, and totally uncharted directions.
HISTORY STOCKS mood
What can the sixties tell us about how we should be thinking now?
HISTORY MARKETS stocks
A market can, and typically does, cease being a bull market long before the index starts to fall. Time to get ready.
BONDS inflation economy stocks
A 1.5 percent yield on the 10-year Treasury in a time of rapidly accelerating inflation. Is there anything more perplexing?
SLACK fed inflation stocks
We continue the conversation daily in our members-only Slack group. Here’s a summary of the most helpful insights gained from the community last month.
MOOD stocks
Elon Musk embodies the cult of personality that investors are attracted to in the final stages of the bull market.
MOOD STOCKS CRYPTO
The cosmic picture is one of unparalleled levels of euphoria in 2022. We remain bullish.
SALON stocks economy semis
POLICY STOCKs economy
Fed chief Jerome Powell is emulating Alan Greenspan’s activist monetary policy approach from 1994. This holds lessons for all of us.
SLACK STOCKS HISTORY POLICY
HISTORY STOCKS
“The Nifty Fifty were taken out and shot one by one.”
MACRO stocks commodities china
What if the greatest trick the market ever pulled was convincing investors that we’re still in a bear market?
SLACK POlicy stocks crypto life
POLICY STOCKS ECONomy
A common assertion is that markets won’t bottom out until we see clear signs of a dovish central bank pivot. We disagree with this.
CHINA stocks economy
What are genuine signs of reopening and what is noise? Don’t focus on the economy, the covid outbreak, or the protests; listen to the market.
MACRO stocks politics economy
With eyes wide shut, most people don’t expect to see what they’re not looking for. We encourage you to open your eyes.
SLACK economy stocks life
MACRO STocks bonds currencies
What happened to the assured recession which most models, surveys, and leading indicators have been pointing to?
EVENT stocks economy climate
Bringing together the most interesting people in the most interesting locations for the most interesting ideas.
MACRO climate stocks
We believe oil is starting to price in a negative demand shock from global EV adoption. The structural shift in energy markets has begun.
SCRIBE stocks economy
Banks are under stress and pockets of the commercial real estate market are showing cracks as well. What’s next?
EVENT stocks economy policy
I didn’t think it was possible, but I returned from my New York trip even more bullish.
TECH stocks productivity
AI is shifting from productivity sapping distraction to a secular productivity tailwind. What are the macro and investment implications?
EVENT stocks bonds economy
MACRO STOCKS bonds dollar
What important charts and levels are you keeping an eye on?
MACRO stocks dollar
What if the shades of 2018 were present with us in 2022?
POLICY stocks bonds
The Fed’s institutional memory of fighting inflation may obviate the desire for deep rate cuts.
CHINA stocks
When the Party broadcasts its intentions, history tells us how reliably they execute them. We’re betting on Xi to rekindle China’s bull market.
EVENT tech stocks bonds
EVENT stocks economy macro
HISTORY stocks tech
This isn’t 1995; we’re now in a post-bubble world.
HISTORY stocks bonds
To grasp the nuances of today’s market, it’s helpful to look back at the 1960s—a decade known for its own market upheavals and speculative excesses.