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    MACRO

    Requiem for a Dream

    “You almost feel numb.”


    MACRO

    Macro Case for Stocks

    The low level of nominal bond yields provides an important offset to the richness of earnings multiples.


    POLITICS

    Coronavirus: Impact on the Dollar and US Election

    Should we think of America as a classically troubled emerging market?


    SALON

    Consumer & Growth Stocks Salon

    The future has been pulled forward creating a decade’s worth of change in just a few months. We gathered this month to identify opportunities and discuss what comes next.


    ECONOMY

    Where are the Millennials’ homes?

    The virus has pulled millions of people back into the homebuying market to look for a home for their families and remote work needs. With inadequate supply, a new construction boom is unfolding.


    MACRO

    The Rip-Roaring Twenties

    The insight from financial history is that we’ve endured the “displacement” and are only now entering the “boom.” The “mania” phase lies well ahead.


    TECH

    Future Nostalgia

    Even after 50 years, the ICT revolution is far from complete. As we look ahead, a green socially sustainable golden age is technologically possible.


    SLACK

    Community Wisdom: Long Crazy Rich Asians, Short Arrogance, Long Beauty Contests, and Long Operas

    We continue the conversation daily in our members-only Slack group. These are the most helpful insights gained from the community last month.


    ECONOMY

    The Fed’s Humanitarian Mission

    Under the compulsions of a new cultural milieu, it will take years for the Fed to meet their broad-based and inclusive employment goals.


    SALON

    Rotation or regime change?

    Macro themes that dominated the market for the last fifteen months—Covid, WFH, then vaccine/reopening—are fading. What comes next?


    HISTORY

    When Dreams Come True

    Once again, we are pushing the boundaries of mesospheric ego and logic. The billionaire space race is more important than you think.


    HISTORY

    Annals of Wall Street

    Once again, Wall Street seems poised on the verge of a take-off into new, totally unexpected, and totally uncharted directions.


    HISTORY

    From the Go-Go Years to YOLO

    What can the sixties tell us about how we should be thinking now?


    HISTORY

    The Bear Patrol

    A market can, and typically does, cease being a bull market long before the index starts to fall. Time to get ready.


    BONDS

    Exploring the Most Perplexing Question

    A 1.5 percent yield on the 10-year Treasury in a time of rapidly accelerating inflation. Is there anything more perplexing?


    SLACK

    Community Wisdom: Sell cleverness and buy bewilderment

    We continue the conversation daily in our members-only Slack group. Here’s a summary of the most helpful insights gained from the community last month.


    MOOD

    The cult of Elon

    Elon Musk embodies the cult of personality that investors are attracted to in the final stages of the bull market.


    MOOD

    Signs from the cosmos

    The cosmic picture is one of unparalleled levels of euphoria in 2022. We remain bullish.


    SALON

    Prospering in Post-pandemic Life


    POLICY

    Lessons from 1994

    Fed chief Jerome Powell is emulating Alan Greenspan’s activist monetary policy approach from 1994. This holds lessons for all of us.


    SLACK

    Community Wisdom: Long Opposites, Short Harvests, Long Beatings, Short Aging, and Short Reason

    We continue the conversation daily in our members-only Slack group. Here’s a summary of the most helpful insights gained from the community last month.


    HISTORY

    Revisiting the Nifty Fifty

    “The Nifty Fifty were taken out and shot one by one.”


    MACRO

    Bull or no bull

    What if the greatest trick the market ever pulled was convincing investors that we’re still in a bear market?


    SLACK

    Community Wisdom: Short Naval, Long Fear, Long Patience, Short Conflict

    We continue the conversation daily in our members-only Slack group. Here’s a summary of the most helpful insights gained from the community last month.


    POLICY

    Why fight the Fed?

    A common assertion is that markets won’t bottom out until we see clear signs of a dovish central bank pivot. We disagree with this.


    CHINA

    Going all-in on China

    What are genuine signs of reopening and what is noise? Don’t focus on the economy, the covid outbreak, or the protests; listen to the market.


    MACRO

    Eyes wide shut

    With eyes wide shut, most people don’t expect to see what they’re not looking for. We encourage you to open your eyes.


    SLACK

    Community Wisdom: Short Buffett, Short Reason, Long Casinos, and Long Obscurity

    We continue the conversation daily in our members-only Slack group. These are the most helpful insights gained from the community last month.


    MACRO

    The Year of Contrarian Thinking

    What happened to the assured recession which most models, surveys, and leading indicators have been pointing to?


    EVENT

    Greenwich Dinner Notes: Long Skynet, Short Liars, and Short Anomalies

    Bringing together the most interesting people in the most interesting locations for the most interesting ideas.


    MACRO

    China EVs: the undoing of oil

    We believe oil is starting to price in a negative demand shock from global EV adoption. The structural shift in energy markets has begun.

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