We are witnessing the birth of a Machiavellian America, which will make for a much less stable world going forward. The US has little reputational and geopolitical interest in maintaining a global order as it loses hegemonic status, and is thus actively balancing against rivals by inciting conflict. That’s right. The situation in Ukraine–but also with Taiwan–are great examples of this strategy. In both cases, the US is no longer acting with restraint.
Investors should prepare for a higher frequency of geopolitical conflicts going forward—not all of which are going to be macro relevant. This will create opportunities to harvest geopolitical alpha.
About the speaker:
Marko Papic is a Partner and Chief Strategist at Clocktower Group, an alternative investment management firm based in Santa Monica, California. He leads the firm’s Strategy Team, providing bespoke research to clients and partners on geopolitics, macroeconomics, and markets. He is also the author of Geopolitical Alpha, a book that introduces his highly acclaimed constraints-based framework to investors. It is an important addition to the field of prediction science.