The low level of nominal bond yields provides an important offset to the richness of earnings multiples.
STOCKS
Are Internet Valuations Inflated?
The total enterprise value of the internet enabled economy will grow by 10x to $62 trillion by 2045 from $6 trillion today.
STOCKS
The Investment Zeitgeist
The software sector is dangerously on the cusp of a precipitous fall.
STOCKS
Behind the FANGs
Every component of FANG is stronger because of the coronavirus pandemic.
STOCKS
Inglorious Markets
As you start to walk on the way, said Rumi, the way appears. Since we are laying considerable weight on the prospect of a new bull market, let us define what we mean by it.
STOCKS
Young Bulls, Old Bears
"The best players in this kind of market have not passed their twenty-ninth birthdays. This is a Kids’ market."
STOCKS
Death by Fintech
We believe Square, Shopify, and PayPal will collectively be worth more than the ten largest US banks combined.
STOCKS
The Great Rotation: A hundred-year perspective
The rotation from value to growth over the past decade is the start of a secular trend that will persist over many decades.
STOCKS
Silicon Valley’s Endgame Revisited
What could mark the peak in internet valuations better than when the company whose grandiose mission it is “to increase the GDP of the internet” goes public?
SLACK
Community Wisdom: Short Cancer, Long DeFi, Short Bill’s Brain, and Long Idiots
We continue the conversation daily in our members-only Slack group. Here’s a summary of the most helpful insights gained from the community last month.
SLACK
Community Wisdom: Long Awareness, Long Boy Plunger, Short Emotions, Long Black Swans, Short Vacations
We continue the conversation daily in our members-only Slack group. Here’s a summary of the most helpful insights gained from the community last month.
SALON
Rotation or regime change?
Macro themes that dominated the market for the last fifteen months—Covid, WFH, then vaccine/reopening—are fading. What comes next?
STOCKS
Shale and Silicon Valley: a telling analogy
Silicon Valley is experiencing a confined downturn, similar to the shale bust of 2015—16. The lesson is that now is not the time to be bearish.
STOCKS
Another tech bull run
Sequencing matters when a boom turns into a bust. As we enter the capital discipline stage, many beaten-down tech stocks can double.
Economy
Credit crunch: it’s a Silicon Valley thing
Forget the idea that a credit crunch is looming. It’s been here for some time. Look to Silicon Valley.
STOCKS
Rethinking value investing
At the peak of the railway bubble in 1880, the transport sector accounted for 60 percent of stock market value. What if the tech sector reaches similar heights?
STOCKS
The shale crystal ball
Hold off your bearish bets till everything comes together. There’s still time. The S&P 500 is heading toward a new high above 5,000.
