Unusual times and unusual setting, but we continued our TMIDITW series over Zoom this month with peers from around the world: New York, London and Singapore. Each participant shared a chart to discuss with the diverse group. Please find herein a review of the charts and conversation.
Chart 1: The Great Lockdown The cumulative loss to global GDP over 2020 and 2021 could be around $9 trillion, greater than the economies of Japan and Germany combined.
Chart 2: America’s Reopening A tiny number of counties account for an overwhelming majority of GDP and the large number of Covid-19 cases as well.
Chart 3: Buyers of Last Resort The government footprint in financial markets is the largest we have seen than at any time in our careers.
Chart 4: What are credit markets telling us? “The leverage unwind is incalculable.”
Chart 5: Winners Take All Every component of FANG is stronger because of the coronavirus pandemic.
Chart 6: The Three Body Problem It’s more important than ever to keep an open mind given an exceptionally wide range of outcomes.
Chart 7: The End of American Exceptionalism The shale boom has turned to bust, Silicon Valley’s excesses are unwinding, and the Fed has outspent other central banks.
Chart 8: Submerging Markets This has been the worst quarter for carry trades since 1999.
Chart 9: Emerging Markets Crisis Redux EM countries now face a health crisis and a financial crisis which interact in complex ways.
Chart 10: Karmic Debt On a long enough timeline, Karma always wins.