On the first of each month, I share reflections on the market in our private podcast. This enables me to tie together the various threads of our work and connect the dots between what I observe and hear during my travels and interactions with people. 

While many of you are podcast buffs, some prefer the magic of the written word. This is an edited transcript of the recording, without my typical writing flair. Here goes:  

I’d like to begin by sharing a brief commentary from David Bahnsen, the founder of a wealth management firm.

Short-term market-watching does not get easier by attaching to it short-term economic data. For some time now pundits have been pulled in two different direction at once. 

Manufacturing? In decline for over a year. Factory construction? Up 75 percent over the last year. Unemployment? Well below 4 percent. Labor force participation? Still dramatically lower than its pre-GFC high. Trade deficit? Down (that is good). Total global trade levels? Down (that is not good). Japan’s economy? Better in many ways. China’s economy? Worse in many ways. Housing prices? Have not collapsed at all. Housing sales volume? Totally collapsed. Housing demand? Not collapsed. Housing supply? Collapsed. Core goods inflation? Gone. Core services inflation? Not gone.

This is the tale of the tape—economic data everywhere you look that is maddening to the pessimists and not quite reassuring to the optimists.  

This is what happens when historical cause-effect relationships breakdown. The beauty of macro is