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    ECONOMY

    The Major Challenge of Our Time

    Consumer prices rose in 2019 at the fastest pace in eight years.


    BONDS

    The Curious Case of Bond Yields

    We believe a sharp repricing in government bonds is coming.


    BONDS

    Crossing the Chasm

    Pandemics have a way of shifting the course of history, and not always in a manner immediately evident. We’ve crossed some chasm by directly giving money to people.


    MACRO

    Themes for the Next Decade

    Five major themes will underpin the “twenties”: balanced multipolarity, generational conflict, China’s introspection, atoms over bits, and climate change as an investment thesis.


    ECONOMY

    The NeverEnding Inflation Story

    Everything we see at a micro level points to a more subdued inflation outlook than a durable shift above target in the inflation trend.


    STOCKS

    An Ode to Bears

    Inflation and interest rates sensitivity for stocks is modest at this point. The balance of valuation support and earnings growth supports higher stock prices.


    ECONOMY

    The Fed’s Humanitarian Mission

    Under the compulsions of a new cultural milieu, it will take years for the Fed to meet their broad-based and inclusive employment goals.


    ECONOMY

    The Anguish of Central Banking

    The Fed did not abort the Great Inflation because it was caught up in the philosophical and political currents that were transforming American life and culture.


    MACRO

    The Race to Zero

    Now that climate change has become a political and economic priority, the global race to zero emissions is the investment zeitgeist for this decade.


    ECONOMY

    The Pursuit of Profit

    Some believe the 2020s could be the decade when workers reclaim the reins of power. The data contradicts this.


    STOCKS

    Be empty of worrying

    Investors are underestimating the adeptness of the US corporate sector to grow profits despite acute labor shortages and supply-chain stress.


    POLICY

    The Inflation Curse

    We’re bullish on gold. It is an essential asset to own as a hedge against dollar weakness and a drop in risk assets.


    BONDS

    Exploring the Most Perplexing Question

    A 1.5 percent yield on the 10-year Treasury in a time of rapidly accelerating inflation. Is there anything more perplexing?


    SLACK

    Community Wisdom: Sell cleverness and buy bewilderment

    We continue the conversation daily in our members-only Slack group. Here’s a summary of the most helpful insights gained from the community last month.


    STOCKS

    The pandemic endgame

    Everything we observe indicates that the pandemic is nearing its end. This is bullish for the leisure and travel industry.


    STOCKS

    Déjà vu: fundamentals versus fear

    Several key market mysteries will be unraveled in the coming year. The question is, can fundamentals trump fear?


    BONDS

    Time to buy bonds

    We wouldn’t be surprised to see the 10-year yield range-bound between 1.5 percent and 3.5 percent for the rest of the decade.


    ECONOMY

    Inflation-schmation

    How did we come to believe the Fed has to plunge us into recession to kill inflation?

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