Consumer prices rose in 2019 at the fastest pace in eight years.
BONDS
The Curious Case of Bond Yields
We believe a sharp repricing in government bonds is coming.
BONDS
Crossing the Chasm
Pandemics have a way of shifting the course of history, and not always in a manner immediately evident. We’ve crossed some chasm by directly giving money to people.
MACRO
Themes for the Next Decade
Five major themes will underpin the “twenties”: balanced multipolarity, generational conflict, China’s introspection, atoms over bits, and climate change as an investment thesis.
ECONOMY
The NeverEnding Inflation Story
Everything we see at a micro level points to a more subdued inflation outlook than a durable shift above target in the inflation trend.
STOCKS
An Ode to Bears
Inflation and interest rates sensitivity for stocks is modest at this point. The balance of valuation support and earnings growth supports higher stock prices.
ECONOMY
The Fed’s Humanitarian Mission
Under the compulsions of a new cultural milieu, it will take years for the Fed to meet their broad-based and inclusive employment goals.
ECONOMY
The Anguish of Central Banking
The Fed did not abort the Great Inflation because it was caught up in the philosophical and political currents that were transforming American life and culture.
MACRO
The Race to Zero
Now that climate change has become a political and economic priority, the global race to zero emissions is the investment zeitgeist for this decade.
ECONOMY
The Pursuit of Profit
Some believe the 2020s could be the decade when workers reclaim the reins of power. The data contradicts this.
STOCKS
Be empty of worrying
Investors are underestimating the adeptness of the US corporate sector to grow profits despite acute labor shortages and supply-chain stress.
POLICY
The Inflation Curse
We’re bullish on gold. It is an essential asset to own as a hedge against dollar weakness and a drop in risk assets.
BONDS
Exploring the Most Perplexing Question
A 1.5 percent yield on the 10-year Treasury in a time of rapidly accelerating inflation. Is there anything more perplexing?
SLACK
Community Wisdom: Sell cleverness and buy bewilderment
We continue the conversation daily in our members-only Slack group. Here’s a summary of the most helpful insights gained from the community last month.
STOCKS
The pandemic endgame
Everything we observe indicates that the pandemic is nearing its end. This is bullish for the leisure and travel industry.
STOCKS
Déjà vu: fundamentals versus fear
Several key market mysteries will be unraveled in the coming year. The question is, can fundamentals trump fear?
BONDS
Time to buy bonds
We wouldn’t be surprised to see the 10-year yield range-bound between 1.5 percent and 3.5 percent for the rest of the decade.
ECONOMY
Inflation-schmation
How did we come to believe the Fed has to plunge us into recession to kill inflation?
POLICY
Blasphemy
Is it blasphemy to argue that the Fed is doing a good job and that “immaculate disinflation” is already underway?
ECONOMY
Labor’s new flavor
We’re witnessing a secular tightness in the labor market. What if the future is not one of stagflation, but rather a new era of productivity-led growth?
