We are still early in this carnival of wild speculation.
BONDS
Crossing the Chasm
Pandemics have a way of shifting the course of history, and not always in a manner immediately evident. We’ve crossed some chasm by directly giving money to people.
STOCKS
The Bear Case: The People vs Stocks
Investors should be on guard for a more volatile and disruptive phase ahead.
MACRO
On a Long Enough Timeline, History Repeats
American civilization like any other is a transitory thing. But the effort to meet the challenge of the rising East may yet reinvigorate it.
TECH
Future Nostalgia
Even after 50 years, the ICT revolution is far from complete. As we look ahead, a green socially sustainable golden age is technologically possible.
MACRO
The pandemic won’t end
It will take years, rather than months, of a dismaying cycle in which cases subside and surge before we achieve global immunity, even after inoculation.
SLACK
Community Wisdom: Long Surfing, Short Dreams, Short Achilles Heel, and Long Dirtbags
We continue the conversation daily in our members-only Slack group. Here’s a summary of the most helpful insights gained from the community last month.
HISTORY
Encore: The Corporation
“One of the leading causes of the shift of American values and the destruction of the American dream was the rise of corporations.”
POLICY
The Inflation Curse
We’re bullish on gold. It is an essential asset to own as a hedge against dollar weakness and a drop in risk assets.
BONDS
Exploring the Most Perplexing Question
A 1.5 percent yield on the 10-year Treasury in a time of rapidly accelerating inflation. Is there anything more perplexing?
STOCKS
Is the bull market dying?
Financial markets are simply adjusting to a new rate hike cycle. That is all there is to it. The bull market will soon enter its third and perhaps final stage.
STOCKS
The pandemic endgame
Everything we observe indicates that the pandemic is nearing its end. This is bullish for the leisure and travel industry.
STOCKS
Déjà vu: fundamentals versus fear
Several key market mysteries will be unraveled in the coming year. The question is, can fundamentals trump fear?
SALON
Prospering in Post-pandemic Life
POLICY
Lessons from 1994
Fed chief Jerome Powell is emulating Alan Greenspan’s activist monetary policy approach from 1994. This holds lessons for all of us.
SLACK
Community Wisdom: Long Rainforests, Short Booms, Short Artists, Long Devotion
We continue the conversation daily in our members-only Slack group. Here’s a summary of the most helpful insights gained from the community last month.
POLICY
Why fight the Fed?
A common assertion is that markets won’t bottom out until we see clear signs of a dovish central bank pivot. We disagree with this.
CHINA
Going all-in on China
What are genuine signs of reopening and what is noise? Don’t focus on the economy, the covid outbreak, or the protests; listen to the market.
MACRO
Eyes wide shut
With eyes wide shut, most people don’t expect to see what they’re not looking for. We encourage you to open your eyes.
SLACK
Community Wisdom: Short Buffett, Short Reason, Long Casinos, and Long Obscurity
We continue the conversation daily in our members-only Slack group. These are the most helpful insights gained from the community last month.
CLIMATE
Praising Europe’s climate wisdom
Europe hasn’t traded-in its green credibility for energy security. Instead, Russia’s war is accelerating the race to zero emissions.
EVENT
Greenwich Dinner Notes: Long Skynet, Short Liars, and Short Anomalies
Bringing together the most interesting people in the most interesting locations for the most interesting ideas.
MACRO
Debunking deglobalization
What’s the fate of globalization?
SCRIBE
Water cooler insights
Banks are under stress and pockets of the commercial real estate market are showing cracks as well. What’s next?
POLICY
Blasphemy
Is it blasphemy to argue that the Fed is doing a good job and that “immaculate disinflation” is already underway?
EVENT
Notes from New York
I didn’t think it was possible, but I returned from my New York trip even more bullish.
POLICY
Monetary whiplash
Do we need Milton Friedman? Or are we confident in our analysis that money supply is divorced from business cycles?
BONDS
Bonds are expensive
The favorable inflation base effects will start to fade just as the Fed ends its tightening cycle later this year. What could possibly go wrong?
EVENT
London Trip Notes
Bringing together the most interesting people in the most interesting locations for the most interesting ideas.
